Shenzhen’s mortgage (Sz Mortgage) market is likely to stay supportive but cautious over the next few years. Authorities are expected to keep lowering down‑payment ratios and mortgage rates to stabilize prices and clear oversupply, while local rules will still favor first‑time buyers over speculators. Nationwide, analysts forecast further small home‑price declines and weaker sales in 2026–27, but Shenzhen shows early signs of recovery with rising second‑hand prices and solid transaction volumes, suggesting its mortgage and demand outlook will outperform many other Chinese cities. Long‑term risks remain tied to oversupply and negative‑equity pressures, so borrowers should expect relatively low rates but tight lending standards and ongoing government intervention.ubs+7
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